AleaGreen is a division of Alea Business Software S.L that offers long‑term European markets price curves forecasting reports. AleaGreen will act as a hub to connect the renewable energy sector with financial entities and investment funds, producers and large consumers, to explore synergies and opportunities.

Long‑term prices forecasting report

To whom is it aimed at?

Utilities
Traders
Renewable energy assets managers
Participants in PPA
Retailers
Large and electro‑intensive consumers
Promoters and developers of renewable energies
Investment funds and banks

Utilities and advantages of long‑term price curve forecasting reports Europe

Assets valuation for renewable energy projects financing
Evaluate the risks associated with the prices captured by wind and solar photovoltaic energy compared to the base prices of the markets from confidence bands, for risk and coverage management
Negotiation and closing of PPA
Portfolio valuation and audits
Long‑term energy trading
Evaluation of the hourly photovoltaic and wind resource in any potential location
Understand the main factors that influence market prices and prices captured by wind and solar photovoltaic renewable technologies
Maximise revenue for energy sold to the market based on hourly price forecasts and optimisation of hybrid systems with storage
Assess the feasibility of potential projects to mitigate the investment risk
Have a vision of long term markets conditions to identify new business opportunities
Have the consultancy of high level experts in the energy markets

Main features of AleaGreen's long‑term price curve forecasting reports

30‑year horizon
Hourly granularity
Confidence bands P15 and P85
Prices captured by photovoltaic and wind energy
Annual scenarios of the main explanatory variables: demand, renewable energy, shutdown or new nuclear energy capacity scenarios, fuels, CO₂ emission rights, etc.
Prospects for the increase in international interconnections capacity
Prospects for the increase in the number of electric vehicles and the installed capacity of batteries, hydrogen, self‑consumption, etc.

Main European markets available

Forecasts are also developed for markets of America and Asia

Frequency

General features

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Alea Business Software S.L– AleaSoft – AleaGreen developed a methodology for energy forecasting that is unique, guaranteeing the highest degree of efficiency and precision. This methodology has been in use for more than 23 years in some of the most important companies of the energy sector in Europe. More than 400 models obtained with it are in service in different European markets.

Long term price forecasting

Our reports

Las previsiones de precio tienen una granularidad horaria y 30 años de horizonte. Las principales variables que se consideran para generar las previsiones de precio son:

In the last three years, more than 300 long‑term forecasting reports were carried out, covering most European electricity markets. The long‑term price forecasting report includes:

Demanda, que utiliza como variables explicativas la temperatura, el calendario y variables socio-económicas.
Producción eólica
Producción solar
Producción hidroeléctrica
Producción nuclear
Interconexiones
Precio de emisiones de CO2
Precio de combustibles (Brent, carbón y gas).
Tasas de cambio

¿Cómo se realizan los cálculos?

Use cases

Se tienen en cuenta los planes para aumentar la capacidad de interconexión entre los principales mercados de electricidad europeos.
Se generan utilizando todos los datos registrados disponibles en ese momento.
Tienen en cuenta los escenarios de difusión de nuevas y existentes tecnologías (vehículos eléctricos, baterías, auto-consumo, bombas de calor) y su impacto en el volumen de la demanda y en el perfil horario del precio
Incluyen las bandas de confianza máxima y mínima de las previsiones del precio con granularidad anual.

PPA (Power Purchase Agreement): Having reliable long term forecasting is essential for all parties involved in signing a PPA
Renewable energy projects financing: Long term price forecasting also allows evaluating the viability of possible projects to mitigate the investment risk both for the financing of projects to the market and for those that are submitted to renewable energy auctions
Hybrid systems of renewable energy and energy storage: Optimising exploitation strategies for hybrid systems with storage allows maximising the income from the energy sold to the market based on hourly price forecasting
Portfolio valuation and audits: Having coherent hourly forecasting is essential for the financial audit and Due Diligence processes, for the creation of a good financial model to value the renewable energy assets portfolio, as well as for making decisions associated with investments or M&A
Risk and coverage management: When buying or selling energy, it is necessary to calculate the risk of the portfolio. In addition, hedges are necessary to reduce this risk. Long term forecasting with associated probabilities is a fundamental input for the risk assessment
Energy trading: Energy trading requires a robust strategy to minimise the market price risk and take advantage of opportunities that may arise in the markets. To define a purchase or sale strategy, a future vision of market prices is necessary

Previsiones de precio a largo plazo (30 años)

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Features of the service

We offer a professional and reliable service tailored to your needs

23 years of experience

23 years of experience as forecasting leaders in the energy sector

All European markets

We offer forecasts for all European markets

Scientific methodology

We apply a unique scientific methodology that ensures efficiency and precision

Strategy

Strategy for the development of renewable energies and decarbonisation