Previsiones de precio a largo plazo (30 años)
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AleaGreen is a division of Alea Business Software S.L that offers long‑term European markets price curves forecasting reports. AleaGreen will act as a hub to connect the renewable energy sector with financial entities and investment funds, producers and large consumers, to explore synergies and opportunities.
Long‑term prices forecasting report
- Definir una estrategia eficaz en la compra de energía a largo plazo
- Controlar, planificar y gestionar de forma óptima la cartera de productos
- Negociar contratos de compraventa de electricidad a largo plazo (PPA)
To whom is it aimed at?
- Utilities
- Traders
- Renewable energy assets managers
- Participants in PPA
- Retailers
- Large and electro‑intensive consumers
- Promoters and developers of renewable energies
- Investment funds and banks
Utilities and advantages of long‑term price curve forecasting reports Europe
- Assets valuation for renewable energy projects financing
- Evaluate the risks associated with the prices captured by wind and solar photovoltaic energy compared to the base prices of the markets from confidence bands, for risk and coverage management
- Negotiation and closing of PPA
- Portfolio valuation and audits
- Long‑term energy trading
- Evaluation of the hourly photovoltaic and wind resource in any potential location
- Understand the main factors that influence market prices and prices captured by wind and solar photovoltaic renewable technologies
- Maximise revenue for energy sold to the market based on hourly price forecasts and optimisation of hybrid systems with storage
- Assess the feasibility of potential projects to mitigate the investment risk
- Have a vision of long term markets conditions to identify new business opportunities
- Have the consultancy of high level experts in the energy markets
Main features of AleaGreen's long‑term price curve forecasting reports
- 30‑year horizon
- Hourly granularity
- Confidence bands P15 and P85
- Prices captured by photovoltaic and wind energy
- Annual scenarios of the main explanatory variables: demand, renewable energy, shutdown or new nuclear energy capacity scenarios, fuels, CO2 emission rights, etc.
- Prospects for the increase in international interconnections capacity
- Prospects for the increase in the number of electric vehicles and the installed capacity of batteries, hydrogen, self‑consumption, etc.
Main European markets available
- Spain
- Portugal
- Italy
- United Kingdom
- France
- Germany
- Poland
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Bulgaria
- Luxembourg
- Hungary
- Romania
- Serbia
- Netherlands
- Belgium
- Switzerland
- Austria
- Cyprus
- Slovenia
- Czech Republic
- Greece
- Ireland
- Slovakia
- Slovenia
- Croatia
- NordPool
- Iceland
- North Macedonia
- Norway
- Sweden
- Finland
- Denmark
- Estonia
- Lithuania
- Latvia
- Malta
- Montenegro
Forecasts are also developed for markets of America and Asia
Frequency
- One‑time only delivery
- Annual subscription with one delivery
- Annual subscription with two deliveries
- Annual subscription with quarterly delivery
General features
- More than 23 years working for the main companies of the energy sector
- Forecasts with scientific basis
- Coherency and quality of results
- More than 400 models in operation
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Alea Business Software S.L– AleaSoft – AleaGreen developed a methodology for energy forecasting that is unique, guaranteeing the highest degree of efficiency and precision. This methodology has been in use for more than 23 years in some of the most important companies of the energy sector in Europe. More than 400 models obtained with it are in service in different European markets.
Long term price forecasting
Our reports
Las previsiones de precio tienen una granularidad horaria y 30 años de horizonte. Las principales variables que se consideran para generar las previsiones de precio son:
In the last three years, more than 300 long‑term forecasting reports were carried out, covering most European electricity markets. The long‑term price forecasting report includes:
- Demanda, que utiliza como variables explicativas la temperatura, el calendario y variables socio-económicas.
- Producción eólica
- Producción solar
- Producción hidroeléctrica
- Producción nuclear
- Interconexiones
- Precio de emisiones de CO2
- Precio de combustibles (Brent, carbón y gas).
- Tasas de cambio
- An Excel document with the forecasts and the average scenario of the main explanatory variables
- A PDF document that includes the description of the market and the used scenarios, the applied hypotheses and the analysis of the forecasts
¿Cómo se realizan los cálculos?
Use cases
- Se tienen en cuenta los planes para aumentar la capacidad de interconexión entre los principales mercados de electricidad europeos.
- Se generan utilizando todos los datos registrados disponibles en ese momento.
- Tienen en cuenta los escenarios de difusión de nuevas y existentes tecnologías (vehículos eléctricos, baterías, auto-consumo, bombas de calor) y su impacto en el volumen de la demanda y en el perfil horario del precio
- Incluyen las bandas de confianza máxima y mínima de las previsiones del precio con granularidad anual.
- PPA (Power Purchase Agreement): Having reliable long term forecasting is essential for all parties involved in signing a PPA
- Renewable energy projects financing: Long term price forecasting also allows evaluating the viability of possible projects to mitigate the investment risk both for the financing of projects to the market and for those that are submitted to renewable energy auctions
- Hybrid systems of renewable energy and energy storage: Optimising exploitation strategies for hybrid systems with storage allows maximising the income from the energy sold to the market based on hourly price forecasting
- Portfolio valuation and audits: Having coherent hourly forecasting is essential for the financial audit and Due Diligence processes, for the creation of a good financial model to value the renewable energy assets portfolio, as well as for making decisions associated with investments or M&A
- Risk and coverage management: When buying or selling energy, it is necessary to calculate the risk of the portfolio. In addition, hedges are necessary to reduce this risk. Long term forecasting with associated probabilities is a fundamental input for the risk assessment
- Energy trading: Energy trading requires a robust strategy to minimise the market price risk and take advantage of opportunities that may arise in the markets. To define a purchase or sale strategy, a future vision of market prices is necessary
Features of the service
We offer a professional and reliable service tailored to your needs
23 years of experience
23 years of experience as forecasting leaders in the energy sector
All European markets
We offer forecasts for all European markets
Scientific methodology
We apply a unique scientific methodology that ensures efficiency and precision
Strategy
Strategy for the development of renewable energies and decarbonisation